Welcome back to another installment of the Mcinnes Marketing Minute! Don’t forget, if you don’t have time to read this blog, you can listen through our Podcast or YouTube video!
Now we are well into the first week of December, which means November statistics have been released and we can continue to see the trend in Vancouver Real Estate. But before we jump into November though, it’s important to know where we have been to put in some context.
The first half of the year saw us in a declining market. This mostly entailed a buyers market with downwards pressure on pricing continuing. As of July, this changed and we saw a significant rise in home buyer demand. This continued for the next 3 months, however pricing also continued to decline. As of October, we were officially in a balanced market. This essentially means the market is buoyant and not in anybody's favour. If property is priced right, it will sell, if not it will sit on the market. This also reduced the downward pressure on prices and we saw this level out slightly.
As of October, we actually saw sellers market statistics. Multiple offers were back, homes sold in a matter of days, so on and so forth. The key rule to this though was still price. If it’s priced right, although multiple offers may be happening, they were not escalating above asking values in general. Same with quick sales, they were happening, but not above asking prices in general.
Now typically three continued months in consistent activity is what changes a market. October was our first month in ‘sellers’ level territory, but we are also coming out of the fall period so eyes are watching November to see if the trend is balancing out or continuing upward.
This brings us up to date. So let’s take a look at November shall we?
In one sentence, November was a continued increase upwards in the market.
As to why and to put that into perspective, overall the market increased to 4% above the 10 year average in Greater Vancouver. Take a look at the table below to see the difference between November 2018 vs. November 2019 Sales.
Interestingly enough, when you take these numbers into account and see the difference in the amount of new listings that came to market in November 2018 vs November 2019:
The real estate board use a ratio called the Sales-to-Active Listings ratio to determine our market conditions. As mentioned above, when this ratio sits within a certain range for a sustained period of time, this dictates where our market is sitting. These ranges are represented below:
- Up to 12% = Buyers Market
- 13 to 20% = Balanced Market
- 21% Plus = Sellers Market
As of October, this ratio was at 23.4%. November saw this ratio move to 23.2%. As you can see, taking the above ranges, we are in the second month of ‘Seller’ activity levels. The longer we stay in seller market activity, the more and more pressure occurs to increase property pricing.
We are moving into the Christmas/Winter months now, so although we cannot guarantee what will happen, we are envisioning the figures to still continue on an upward trend when looking year over year.
Home prices actually saw a slight shift upwards too. Last month the average Home Price Index (HPI) was $992,900. This month saw that figure move to $993,700.
So the market continues to trend upwards, however we are not, and will not yet see, significant changes in home pricing until these trends continue for some time. It still remains a good time to buy as you are buying at the bottom. For those on the sellers side hoping prices will skyrocket again soon, unfortunately that is not the case. However you can take comfort in knowing your property will likely sell if it is priced right
Thank you for joining us again this week for our latest market update! If you have any area specific questions or further queries on the market, please feel free to reach out on any of the contacts below.
We look forward to helping! Next week we'll be putting out a nice light hearted blog and video for you all in the spirit of Christmas!
Until next week,